Despite National Economic Uncertainty, Iowa’s Revenue Forecast Remains Strong

As long as spending is under control, the state will continue to be in a strong fiscal position to provide the core government services Iowans expect while continuing to lower taxes and spur economic growth. The State Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) met on December 14, 2022, to evaluate the current (FY23) and next (FY24) fiscal years. December REC meetings are […]

YTD Revenue Still Tracking Closely With FY22

The most recent Revenue Estimating Conference prediction is aligning with actual results.  January results will provide an even better understanding of revenue trends.   Iowa’s revenue report for November has been released and the data revealed net General Fund revenue for the month was $371.9 million (-38.8%) below the November 2021 net revenue level. When broken down by the three […]

Is Iowa Recession Ready?

Although Iowa’s economy will not be immune to a national recession or other outside pressures, the fiscal condition of the state is solid.   The national economy is on the verge of recession. Inflation is at a 40-year high and continues to be a major concern for the economy. Out-of-control spending, which is a leading cause of inflation, has been […]

Be Thankful and Eat Turkey

The turkey industry in Iowa employs or supports over 38,000 total jobs and is responsible for as much as $10.64 billion in total economic activity throughout the state.   Iowa has a lot to be thankful for this holiday season. Our governor and legislature enacted the largest tax reform in state history, state revenue continues to exceed projections, the state […]

Iowa’s October Revenue Continues to Surpass Estimates

Even with continued inflation, a national recession, and a workforce shortage, the state’s net General Fund revenue for the month was $198.6 million (32.7%) above October 2021. Iowa’s revenue report for October has been released and the news for the month continues to depict a positive fiscal situation heading into the holiday season. Even under the weight of continued inflation, […]

C’MON MAN: Are Our Costs Really Going Down?

President Biden’s claim of lowering our everyday costs doesn’t hold up when measured against prices at the pump; a gallon of gas now costs nearly 80% more than it did two years ago. President Joe Biden took the stage at a recent  Democratic National Committee Event to proclaim “Democrats are lowering your everyday costs like prescription drugs, healthcare premiums, energy bills, and gas […]

Improved Revenue Projections Erase Majority of Tax Reform Cost

Continued strong revenue collections are evidence that tax cuts were justified in the state of Iowa; without them, the state government would have withdrawn more from the economy than necessary to support its services. The State Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) met in October to evaluate the current and next fiscal years, FY23 and FY24. Compared with its previous forecast in […]

Reynolds Gets an “A”

Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds was not only one of just five governors who received an “A” grade, but her score was the highest in the nation! The Cato Institute has released its 2022 Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors.  Iowa’s Kim Reynolds was not only one of just five governors who received an A grade from Cato, but this […]

Iowa FY2022 Exceeds Expectations With Large Surplus

Iowa has far exceeded expectations again, as the books are now officially closed on fiscal year 2022. Just over six months ago, Iowa budget experts on the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) forecast state revenues to be 4.3% more than the previous fiscal year. However, the state ultimately brought in 8% ($717 million) more than last year, resulting in a budget surplus of $1.91 billion.

This is the second year in a row Iowa experienced a billion dollar surplus, as the state ended fiscal year 2021 with a $1.24 billion surplus. While income tax cuts have been phasing in since 2018, these figures provide even more confidence for the coming rounds of rate cuts and the exemption of retirement income scheduled for 2023.

Conservative Budgeting Continues to Pay Off for Iowa

Governor Kim Reynolds announced that Iowa’s budget will end Fiscal Year 2022 with a $1.91 billion surplus, which follows Fiscal Year 2021’s $1.24 billion surplus. Iowa’s financial position is due to prudent budgeting and fiscally conservative policies. Governor Reynolds and the legislature are demonstrating that their fiscal policies work to create a healthy economy and a strong financial foundation.

Kraig Paulsen, who serves as the Director of both the Departments of Management and Revenue, stated that “Iowa’s strong financial status again proves that we continue to over collect from Iowa taxpayers.” As a result, Governor Reynolds and the legislature have made it a priority to return the money back to taxpayers.

State Revenue in August Paints a Positive Picture

Iowa’s revenue report for August has been released and the news for the month was encouraging. Even under the weight of continued inflation and a national recession, the state’s net General Fund revenue was $57 million (6.5%) above the August 2021 net revenue level.

When broken down by the three largest sources of revenue-personal income tax, sales/use tax, and corporate income tax-each category demonstrated monthly growth over 2021 (directly from the LSA Revenue Memo):

Time for Tax Credit Reform

Iowa’s historic tax reforms this year focused on lowering the income tax rates paid by Iowans and the companies that employ them. The next step needs to be changing who is – and is not – paying those taxes. If Governor Kim Reynolds and the legislature want to truly position Iowa for the future, it’s time to take on the state’s addiction to special tax breaks.

As the Pandemic Ends, Federal Strings Tangle Medicaid in Iowa

Given the Center for Disease Control’s (CDC’s) recent easing of its COVID-19 guidelines, the national public health emergency appears near its end. The technical end of this emergency declaration will signify that the pandemic is officially over. And while that development will be cause for celebration, it will also trigger a major event for state governments and citizens enrolled in Medicaid.

A History Lesson for President Joe Biden

A nation emerging from a significant pandemic and an economic downturn awaited President Joe Biden in early 2021. President Warren G. Harding inherited a similar situation after winning the 1920 election in a landslide. But Harding overcame it by getting government out of the way. The economy recovered quickly—whereas Biden enacted bad progressive policies that have resulted in a double-dip recession with 40-year high inflation.

July Revenue Figures Show Strength In Times of Uncertainty

The first month of Iowa’s new fiscal year is now behind us. While looking at a single month is just one small slice of the pie, it might be hinting at some economic trends we are seeing nationwide.  Record low unemployment could be resulting in higher than expected income tax payments, while fast growing inflation and a looming recession might be causing people to spend less of their money.

Make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent

No one knows the future direction of the American economy, but several danger signs are ahead. One is continued inflation at 40-year highs or worse — a cruel hidden tax that eats away wages and savings, with more suffering for families struggling to afford groceries and gasoline. Another is a recession triggered by high interest rates designed to fight inflation. This means job losses, lower incomes, smaller nest eggs as stock markets contract, and even tougher times for businesses reeling from supply-chain shortages.

The Impact of the National Recession on Iowa

Politicians, policy makers, and members of the media are scrambling to redefine the term “recession” for the American public. Sometimes these explanations are counter to the traditional economic classification of a recession which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, as measured by the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For anyone keeping track at home, though, the economy declined by 1.6 percent during the first quarter of 2022, and the first estimate of second quarter activity is scheduled to be released on Thursday, July 28; the next announcement of GDP data could signal the arrival of a recession. That GDP release will likely follow another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve as the FOMC tries to turn back inflation that’s at a 40-year high.

The Fight to Restore Fiscal Sanity to Congress

The record high inflation that is plaguing Americans is being fueled by out-of-control federal spending. The federal government has spent over $6 trillion on COVID-19 related pandemic stimulus measures. The most recent, American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) was not even needed as most states are experiencing large surpluses. The national debt is over $30 trillion and rising, which translates to an estimated $97,500 per citizen.

State Government Employment Trends

One topic that comes up frequently when we sit down with taxpayers across Iowa is the number of people our state government employs.  Iowans intuitively understand that there are very real and significant costs shouldered by the state for each member of its workforce.  For instance, the Legislative Services Agency reports in their most recent Factbook that Iowa spent over $1.5 billion in total compensation just three years ago, accounting for roughly 20% of that year’s state budget.  And that doesn’t even count employees at the three regents universities*!

Unemployment Rate Continues to Fall: Biden Recession Ahead?

Iowa’s economy is in strong condition. Problems remain, such as the need for more workers to fill the thousands of open jobs throughout Iowa. Nevertheless, thanks to sound conservative fiscal policies from Governor Kim Reynolds and the legislature, the state is on a solid foundation. Conservative budgeting and pro-growth tax reforms are creating a stronger economy. However, national economic headwinds are creating problems and it appears more likely that an economic recession is imminent.

A Pro-Taxpayer Budget

The 2022 legislative session was historic for Iowa taxpayers. Nearly two months ago the legislature passed the largest tax relief measure in Iowa history, which was signed into law by Governor Kim Reynolds on March 1. What too many people overlook is that significant tax cuts like Iowa’s are only made possible by years of prudent and conservative budgeting.

Since 2018, Governor Reynolds and the legislature have placed an emphasis on passing tax reforms and restraining the growth of spending. This legislative session delivered the third (and largest) round of tax cuts yet, which was accompanied by a budget for Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 of $8.2 billion. This is a slight increase from the $8.1 billion FY 2022 budget and will likely mean yet another large budget surplus. 

Iowa’s Unemployment Rate Continues to Decline

Iowa’s unemployment rate declined to 3 percent in April, which is down from 3.3 percent in March. “The number of unemployed Iowans decreased to 50,900 in April from 55,600 in March. The total number of working Iowans increased to 1,646,800 in April — a figure that is 10,000 higher than March and 45,100 higher than one year ago,” reported Iowa Workforce Development. Unemployment insurance claims are at their lowest level since 1973.

Iowa Poised to Make a Move

For fifteen years the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) has produced Rich States, Poor States: ALEC-Laffer State Economic Competitiveness Index. This broad index measures 15 policy variables that ALEC has deemed important to economic growth, with a particular focus on tax and spending policies.